Intraday April 24th

My post from yesterday got farmed. Today were are seeing buying in all indexes after the MSFT, F earnings.  Today I started in APA I liked the pattern that was forming and still holding dxd as a hedge until we take out the highs. At 2 we have the report on the banks coming out, although not the full report till may 4th, this will give us some idea what the government found, Staying cautious into this report, as the market could move in either direction.

Trade review today into April 23

Today we managed to turn around at the end of the day to close below yesterdays high. This is good for the bears. I think we shall continue to sell through this 20 period sma. The big bear candle on the 20th is what I continue to watch. Right now the market is consolidation, for the next move which should be lower. The market today gave us and opportunity  to exit longs as it was hovering around 860 all day till the end. I personally stepped out of the rest of my traded position in uyg. I continue to hold 50% cash and my dxd.

DXD today came back at the end of the day as the markets sold hard. Look at that high volume spike at the end of the day as dxd came off the double bottom. Still holding this right now and will continue. Looking for a close above 58.10 for a nice bullish sign. 

Intraday April 22

Here is what the market looks like today, coming back into that falling wedge pattern. Still waiting for the 870 to be taken of to become bullish, but am still holding dxd. I think that we may start to see a rounded top formed rather than a breakdown of this rising wedge. We have currently taken out the highs form yesterday and moving up. I will look for direction into tomorrow. If we get another day of buying and if we take out the highs I will be long, if we can not continue to move up tomorrow and make new highs before the next down day, the rounded top look more interesting. 

The market is very strong today. We are seeing continuous buying and a small amount of selling coming through, with low volume on the sell candles. 

End of trading April 21 & action for Tomarrow.

I am still holding DXD, and am look for the market to contiune to sell. Today we did get a bounce of the 20 sma, but I think we will still need to correct more and the 20 will not hold the rest of the week. The MACD has just crossed and the fast stochastic have come out of overbought with the slow soon to follow. I still think the market direction is lower. For me to become bullish again I will need to see 870 level taken out on the S&P 500, and i think we will see 810 before that. 

So i was wrong with the end of the day direction on the markets. Here is the 15 min chart of the S&P 500. Looks to be forming another rising wedge. A break down out of this patten should bring us back down to the lows of yesterday. 

This afternoon (April 21)

Looks like a good spot here to add to dxd, and other shorts, I think we will be seeing some afternoon selling today.

DXD Targets

First Target on dxd is 60 after that the 38.2% fib retrace as it aligns with support and resistance from the last year of trading.

Monday April 20th

Today we initiated our short position in DXD on the breakout of the falling wedge, and added to BGZ will keep you updated with positions as the week unfolds.

Huge move lower in the market today. As was looking for, weakness and a breakdown of this rising wedge pattern. Today the S&P 500 closed at 832.39 right on the 20 sma and our first target. I wont be surprised if tomorrow we see some sideways consolidation since we are sitting on the 20 SMA, but I am now looking at levels of 815 and 807 as support as we continue down. Look for some sector strength tomorrow and a rotation of money in the market. 

Breakdown of Rising Wedge Patterns in Current downturn

All rising wedge patters seen in this down trend.

November 2008 to January 2009

Breakdown of Rising wedge March to May 2008 and July to August 2008

Rising Wedges that was formed from August to October 2007

Week of April 19th Trade Direction

Taking a look at the direction for next week, The S&P 500 chart has formed a rising wedge pattern. It has currently closed at the top and underneath the top trend line at 869.60 on Friday the 17th. Friday the S&P 500, also bounced off a 78.6% fib-retracement level from the high on Jan. 6 2009, and trend line resistance from the highs form Jan 28th and Feb. 9th 2009. The MACD Histogram and the Slow Stochastic both are showing negative divergence with the Price action. All signs point to a move lower in the markets. But I will be waiting the conformation of this move before entering a short position, The market has been so strong lately that I want it to prove to me that I need to go short.  On monday we have BAC (Bank of America's earnings), analysts are expecting 5 cents a share. BAC Looks like its set up for a pop with the Bullish pendant pattern that has formed but with the overall index's showing weakness, Monday is going to give a good indication on market direction. Targets if there is a break down in the market in the coming week is the 20 and 50 period SMA then fib levels 38.2% and 61.8%, If we break to the upside out of this rising wedge, next level to be seen is 910.